The graphics below have been submitted to the journal Environment and Planning A as one of its featured graphics. They aim to capture various dimensions of population change within English local authorities from 1991 to 2011: the proportional increase in the Asian population, the decrease in the White British population, generally decreasing Asian – White British segregation within authorities on average but with that average concealing some increases in spatial heterogeneity: increased differences between some neighbouring small areas (and also increased differences between local authorities). Continue reading
(Updated, Apr 18, 5.35pm & Apr 19, 10.30am, 4.45pm. This is a work in progress)
The motion chart below offers a new way of looking at changes to Asian – White British ‘segregation’ from the 2001 to 2011 Census. An explanation follows.
Presentation at the 2013 GISRUK conference, Liverpool.
Thank you very much, Paul and Jo, for inviting me to this Education Horizons event and to be a part of the centenary celebrations of the Graduate School of Education here in Bristol. The purpose of today is to make predictions about how education may develop in the twenty-first century and beyond. Continue reading
The map shows the two Output Areas in the 2011 Census that share a border but have the greatest difference in the percentage of their residents that are White British. The difference is more than 90 percentage points.
The area to the left was 2.41% White British in 2011, down from 9.59% in 2001. The area to the right was 93.4% White British in 2011, down slightly from 94.2% in 2001.
Note that despite their shared border, in practice the two places are separated by a river, a park and an area of industry. It should also be noted that I am using a generalised boundary file, further generalised by me to make it more manageable in R but no doubt causing some misalignment between the boundaries shown and the geography of the streets.
View The two least similar Ouput Areas (%White British) in a larger map
The map below looks at whether the population aged 10-17 years in 2011 is greater or fewer in number than the population aged 0-7 years in 2001 for places across the UK. The logic is this: if nobody moved (or died) the numbers would be the same, since those aged 0-7 are aged 10-17 ten years later. Where the number has decreased, it suggests places that people have left when they have children. Note, for example, the apparent movement out of central London to the suburbs, perhaps for better schools or for larger homes.
The map below shows the increase or decrease in the White British population across England from 2001 to 2011.
The map is based on Output Area (OA) data for the two censuses aggregated into a common raster grid of cell length 2km. The coordinates used to position OAs into grid cells in 2011 were their population weighted centroids. For 2001 the same centroids were used wherever possible or, where not, the geometric centroids were calculated. As ever, it was all undertaken in R.
Largely as an exercise in data matching and using the raster library in R, I have created a raster grid of cell length 2km showing whether the White British population has increased or decreased (in actual numbers, not percentages) across what I refer to as a ‘Greater London’ study region. All cells shaded orange had less White British people living in them in 2011 compared to 2001. All those shaded yellow had more. Continue reading
Excellent work by Dr. Gemma Catney at the University of Liverpool reported in the Guardian Online yesterday. It draws on her report for the Centre on the Dynamics of Ethnicity and suggests that neighbourhood residential segregation has decreased within most local authority districts of England and Wales for all ethnic minority groups.
It is a very positive picture but how does it square with the more lurid press reports of ‘white flight’ from towns and cities? Continue reading
Excellent report on this morning’s Today programme by Mark Easton, with a written piece at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21511904. The facts and figures he presents complement my own (http://www.social-statistics.org/?cat=5).
In his reports, Mark suggests that the decline in the White British population in London (as well as in other urban centres) is less about ‘white flight’ or ‘urban flight’ and more about aspiration and opportunity, as people who can afford to do so move out into the countryside.
I have a lot of sympathy with this argument which, in terms of describing a process of movement out from the centre of a city, as those who are able to do so, move on, has its roots in the Chicago School of urban sociology and especially the well-known Burgess model. The positive message of movement and aspiration – true of all ethnic groups – also echos Ludi Simpson’s work. Continue reading